An eBay seller claims that his products are rated 5 stars in reviews. He is a seller of parachutes. Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or thing that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility. Examples: Cats who … Continue reading Survivorship Bias
Category: Psychology
Horoscope and Taro and accuracy
The Barum effect (Forer effect) is a common psychological phenomenon whereby individuals give high accuracy rating to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically to them but that are, in fact, vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. You have a great need for other people to like … Continue reading Horoscope and Taro and accuracy
Unexpected Hanging Paradox
Unexpected Hanging Paradox, aka Hangman Paradox A judge tells a condemned prisoner that he will be hanged at noon on one weekday in the following week but that the execution will be a surprise to the prisoner. He will not know the day of the hanging until the executioner knocks on his cell door at … Continue reading Unexpected Hanging Paradox
Benc Tan 